Energy system analysis with a focus on future energy demand projections: The case of Norway

Post Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian war are significantly impacting energy systems worldwide, faltering investments threatening to throttle expansion of primary clean technologies, even in case a well-structured managed system, such as Norway. This unprecedented crisis requires deeper analyses well-measured actions from main actors Norway's climate sector. Hence, providing highlighting needed interventions improvements system is crucial. study analyzes demand-side households, industry, transport, “other” sectors. LEAP model, powerful analysis tool, was used conduct based on Baseline Mitigation scenarios. The demand by sector fuel type toward 2050 forecasted, firstly considering set parameters key assumptions that impact security supply secondly ambitious target government decreasing GHG emissions 55% 2030 90–95% year compared 1990 levels. mitigation scenario aims diversify overall national technological changes large-scale renewable sources (RES) integration. From perspective change issues, EV's include an attractive option for deep decarbonization, including other sustainable H2, biofuel mixed with diesel, use excess heat deriving industry cover households' heating demand, integration pumps driven RES during off-peak applied. Energy projections uncertain, goal show how different up affect whole leading combined global warming potential (GWP) around 7.30 MtCO2 56.40 tones released baseline scenario, reaching only 77.5% reduction referring level. study's findings net-zero ambitions end impossible without carbon tax application capture storage (CCS), especially oil gas industry.